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Reading the economic calendar

You can read an economic calendar entry, compare actual, consensus and previous figures including revisions, and convert release times to your time zone.

One row at a time

Most trading platforms and finance websites include an economic calendar: a long table of countries, times, names of statistics and columns of numbers. At first glance it looks overwhelming.

Yet every row holds the same few pieces of information. Once you can read one entry properly, including the details that are easy to miss, the whole calendar becomes a simple timetable of the week's scheduled news.

Previous, consensus, actual

An economic calendar lists scheduled releases of economic data and central bank events. A typical row shows:

Time and country. Usually shown in your local time, if the settings are right.
Event. For example US nonfarm payrolls, euro area CPI or a central bank decision.
Importance. Stars or colors that estimate how much the release usually moves markets.
Previous. Last period's figure, sometimes with a revision: the corrected value.
Consensus. The median or average forecast of economists, also called forecast or expected.
Actual. Filled in the moment the data are released.

A fictional payrolls entry:

Economists expected 180,000 new jobs. The actual figure is 210,000, a beat of 30,000. But the previous month was revised down from 150,000 to 120,000. The revision takes 30,000 jobs away from last month, while the beat adds 30,000 this month. Over both months combined, the labor market looks roughly as expected. Markets read the combination, not just the headline.

Watch the clock change

Release times are fixed by the statistics agencies. The US jobs report comes at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, usually on the first Friday of the month. Converting that to your time zone is easy, except for a few weeks a year:

The United States moves its clocks to daylight saving time on the second Sunday in March and back on the first Sunday in November. The European Union switches on the last Sundays of March and October. In between those dates, New York and Frankfurt are five hours apart instead of six, so US releases arrive an hour earlier in Europe.

A good habit for the start of each week:

check the calendar for high-impact releases in the markets you trade,
note the consensus,
decide in advance whether you want to hold positions through the release.

Common mistakes

Reading only the actual figure. Without the consensus, a number says little about the surprise.
Ignoring revisions. A strong new figure with a weak revision can be less impressive than it looks.
Trusting the time zone setting blindly. Check it, especially around the daylight saving changes.
Treating importance stars as rules. They are the provider's estimate. Context decides what moves markets.

The takeaway

An economic calendar lists scheduled releases with time, importance, consensus and previous value. Compare the actual with the consensus, and watch revisions.

Check yourself

Quick quiz

4 questions. Instant feedback, nothing is saved.

1Tap the figure the actual result is usually compared with.

Tap the chart.

The consensus of 180,000 is the benchmark. At 210,000, the actual figure beat it by 30,000.
2Last month was revised from 150,000 to 120,000 jobs. Why does that matter?

A strong new number with a weaker revision can be less impressive than the headline suggests.
3You live in Berlin. When is an 8:30 a.m. New York release during most of the year?

New York is usually six hours behind Central European Time. For a few weeks around the daylight saving changes, the gap is five hours.
4What do the stars or colors next to calendar entries mean?

Importance ratings are the provider's judgment. High-impact releases such as payrolls or CPI usually move markets most.

of 4 correct.

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